Live by the polls, die by the polls

A recent NBC – Wall Street Journal poll shows that 55% of respondents oppose private accounts as a part of social Security reform. The media trumpets opposition to private accounts at every turn. But other numbers from the same poll are being largely ignored.

A majority said they knew the system was in need of a fix, and 65 percent said they were open to changing their minds about Bush’s plan. Far from proclaiming a decisive win for the anti-reform team, the poll indicates that persistence may pay off for the president. Of course, Mr. Bush is plugging ahead, in spite of resistance. And good for him. True leaders don’t stick moist fingers in the breeze. They row against the current when necessary. And this issue is too important to put off until the tea leaves are more favorable.

Another area where polls show Bush in a weaker position is in foreign relations, primarily Middle East policy. There are few true moderates in the professional “commentariat,” but Morton Kondracke is one. Kondracke, no neo-conservative Bushite, is a bit surprised that the American people give Bush low marks when the effect of his policies has been a stronger American position throughout the world.

While many Americans are giving Bush C’s and D’s, some regular critics are grudgingly admitting that his policies are working. Daniel Schorr wrote in the Christian Science Monitor, “Something remarkable is happening in the Middle East - a grass-roots movement against autocracy without any significant 'Great Satan' anti-American component. . . . The movements for democratic change in Egypt and Lebanon have happened since the successful Iraqi election on Jan. 30. And one can speculate on whether Iraq has served as a beacon for democratic change in the Middle East. During the run-up to the invasion of Iraq, President Bush said that 'a liberated Iraq can show the power of freedom to transform that vital region.' He may have had it right.”

The German Magazine “Der Speigel” has an article called, “Could Bush be Right?” In the story, they compare the Bush vision to that of Reagan, who was roundly ridiculed throughout Europe, but whose vision transformed the lives of millions.

Pundits speculate that the Terri Schiavo case has played a part in the recent drop in Bush’s approval ratings. The public opposed Washington’s intervention, though 44% of respondents also said that they hadn’t followed the story. Now pollster John Zogby has released a poll that casts doubt upon the earlier statistics.

Zogby, one of the most respected pollsters in the nation, had a different set of questions. "If a disabled person is not terminally ill, not in a coma, and not
being kept alive on life support,” he asked, “and they have no written directive,
should or should they not be denied food and water," the poll asked. 79 percent of those polled said the patient should not be denied food and water. Only nine percent said yes.

In reference to government intervention, the poll asked, "When there is conflicting evidence on whether or not a patient would want to be on a feeding tube, should elected officials order that a feeding tube be removed or should they order that it remain in place." 18% felt the feeding tube should be removed, while 42 percent said it should remain in place.

In other polls, it seemed clear that the public supported a husband’s right to make decisions for his wife in such situations as Terri’s, but they may not have been aware of the specifics of this case. When asked if the husband "has had a girlfriend for 10 years and has two children with her," 56 percent of respondents felt guardianship should have been awarded to Mrs. Schiavo’s parents. 37 percent of those polled disagreed.

Another area of concern seems to be the economy. But again, the facts are at odds with common perception. Growth is at 3.8 percent, as good as during the Reagan and Clinton years. Unemployment is at 5.2 percent, which is as low a rate as during the best economic times. The President’s ideas for tax reform have the potential to spur economic growth to even higher levels.

Fortunately, President Bush isn’t obsessed with polls. He has a plan, and a set of convictions guiding him. He is surrounded by competent advisors who share his dedication to the “Ownership Society,” the defeat of terrorism, the protection of innocent life, and the spread of freedom throughout the world.

Polls are fine. I enjoy keeping up with them and evaluating the mood of the nation. But polls should never be the basis for policy. Sound principle and good judgment are at the root of all good policy.

Real leaders know this.